Nuclear Targets by State 2026: US Attack Map & Survival Guide

Understanding your proximity to a nuclear target is the first step in any serious preparedness plan. The United States Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM), headquartered at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska, oversees a nuclear arsenal of approximately 3,700 warheads as of the 2026 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists assessment. Any adversary planning a first strike would prioritize eliminating the US nuclear deterrent — which means the ICBM silo fields of Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming would be the first targets hit, not the largest cities. This guide provides a comprehensive, state-by-state breakdown of nuclear targets, the science of fallout direction, and the specific survival actions appropriate for each risk zone.

This information is drawn from declassified government documents, FEMA nuclear detonation response planning guidance (FEMA-654), the Congressional EMP Commission, and the Federation of American Scientists' Nuclear Information Project. The goal is not to cause alarm, but to provide the factual foundation for a rational preparedness plan — one that gives you and your family the best possible chance of survival regardless of where you live.

What Makes a Location a Nuclear Target?

A nuclear target, as defined by the Department of Defense's nuclear targeting doctrine, is any location whose destruction would meaningfully degrade an adversary's ability to wage war, sustain its economy, or maintain political control. The DoD classifies US targets into four primary categories, each with a distinct threat profile and survival implication for nearby civilians.

The first and highest-priority category is nuclear force targets — ICBM silo fields, submarine bases, and bomber airfields. Destroying these eliminates the US ability to retaliate, which is why they would be struck first and with the largest warheads. The second category is command-and-control targets — the Pentagon, NORAD, and hardened command bunkers. The third category is military-industrial targets — defense manufacturing plants, naval shipyards, and logistics hubs. The fourth and final category, struck only in a full countervalue exchange, is population centers — major cities targeted to maximize economic disruption and civilian casualties. Understanding which category applies to your region determines both your risk level and the appropriate survival response.

The Federation of American Scientists' Nuclear Information Project estimates that Russia maintains approximately 1,550 deployed strategic warheads as of 2026, while China has approximately 500 deployed warheads. In a limited first strike targeting only US nuclear forces, roughly 400–600 warheads would be directed at the ICBM silo fields and submarine bases. In a full countervalue exchange, all major US cities with populations above 100,000 would be at risk.

The 7/10 Rule: How Radiation Decays After a Nuclear Strike

The 7/10 Rule is a FEMA-validated mathematical formula that describes the decay rate of fallout radiation from a nuclear fission weapon. Developed from data collected during US nuclear weapons testing in the 1950s and formalized in FEMA's nuclear detonation response guidance, the rule states: for every 7-fold increase in time after a detonation, radiation intensity decreases by a factor of 10.

This rule is the scientific basis for FEMA's shelter-in-place guidance and is critical for understanding when it is safe to leave shelter, move to a better shelter, or begin evacuation. The practical implication is that the first 24 hours are the most dangerous — radiation levels are at their highest — and that waiting even 48–72 hours dramatically reduces your cumulative exposure. The table below shows the decay curve for a reference peak radiation level of 1,000 R/hr (roentgens per hour) immediately after fallout deposition:

Source: FEMA Nuclear Detonation Response Guidance (FEMA-654); National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP Report No. 138). Values are illustrative for a 1 MT surface burst at 1 mile downwind; actual levels vary significantly by yield, burst height, and distance.

The critical insight from this table is that the decision to shelter for 24–72 hours is not a minor inconvenience — it is the difference between a survivable radiation dose and a lethal one. A person who remains in a well-shielded basement for 48 hours after a detonation 10 miles away will receive a fraction of the dose of someone who evacuates immediately by car through the fallout zone.

Nuclear Targets by State: Complete Reference Table

The following table consolidates nuclear target data from declassified DoD documents, the Federation of American Scientists' Nuclear Information Project, FEMA nuclear planning guidance, and the World Population Review's 2026 nuclear targets database. Risk levels reflect the probability of being within a blast or heavy fallout zone in a limited nuclear exchange targeting US nuclear forces (Tier 1) or a full countervalue exchange (Tier 2).

Sources: Federation of American Scientists Nuclear Information Project (2026); FEMA Nuclear Detonation Response Guidance (FEMA-654); Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Nuclear Notebook (thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook); World Population Review Nuclear Targets by State (2026); declassified SIOP targeting documents via National Security Archive.

High-Risk States: Survival Protocol for ICBM Silo Zones

High-risk states are those containing primary nuclear force targets — ICBM silo fields, strategic bomber bases, and submarine bases — that would be struck in the opening minutes of any nuclear exchange. Residents of these states face the shortest warning time (ICBM flight time from Russia to the continental US is 25–30 minutes; submarine-launched missiles can arrive in as few as 8–12 minutes) and the highest probability of being within the blast or heavy fallout zone.

Major City Targets: Shelter-in-Place Protocol

Major US cities would be targeted in a full countervalue nuclear exchange — a scenario in which an adversary has abandoned the goal of limiting damage and seeks to maximize civilian and economic casualties. While this represents a worst-case scenario, it is the scenario that most urban Americans should plan for. The key survival insight for city dwellers is that the buildings you are already in provide substantial protection — the primary mistake most people make is attempting to flee, which exposes them to fallout in the open.

Safest States and Regions: Relative Risk Assessment

No location in the continental United States is entirely immune from fallout in a large-scale nuclear exchange, but certain states and regions have significantly lower combined risk from blast, direct fallout, and secondary effects. The Brown University-Columbia University fallout modeling project ("Under the Nuclear Cloud") and the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation's 2024 analysis identify the following regions as having the lowest aggregate risk:

How to Use This Information to Build Your Evacuation Plan

An effective nuclear preparedness plan is built on three pillars: knowing your risk level, identifying your shelter options, and having supplies pre-positioned. FEMA's Individual and Community Preparedness Division recommends that every household within 50 miles of a primary nuclear target have a specific shelter-in-place plan that does not depend on being able to drive to a safer location.

Step 1: Determine your risk zone. Use the table above to identify the primary targets within 50 miles of your location. If you are within 10 miles of an ICBM silo, submarine base, or major military command center, treat yourself as being in a high-risk zone and plan for a minimum of 72 hours of shelter supplies. If you are within 50 miles of a major city, plan for 24–48 hours of shelter supplies and identify the most substantial building within walking distance of your home and workplace.

Step 2: Identify your best available shelter. The NRC's radiation protection guidance rates shelter effectiveness by Protection Factor (PF). A basement in a multi-story brick or concrete building has a PF of approximately 200–1,000 (reduces radiation by a factor of 200 to 1,000). A single-story wood-frame house has a PF of approximately 3–5. Underground parking garages, subway stations, and the centers of large concrete buildings offer the best readily available protection for most urban Americans.

Step 3: Pre-position supplies. FEMA's 72-hour nuclear detonation response guidance recommends pre-positioning the following in your shelter location: 1 gallon of water per person per day (minimum 3-day supply), sealed non-perishable food, a battery-powered or hand-crank NOAA Weather Radio, a first aid kit, potassium iodide (KI) tablets (FDA-approved dosage: 130 mg for adults, 65 mg for children 3–18), and a Geiger counter or personal dosimeter to monitor radiation levels before exiting shelter.

Step 4: Establish a communication plan. Designate an out-of-area contact that all family members will call or text after an event. Local phone networks will be overwhelmed; text messages are more likely to get through than voice calls. Pre-arrange a meeting point that does not require driving through a potential fallout zone.

Frequently Asked Questions